In August, the CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, and CPI inflation rebounded to a year high, while PPI hit a four-month high. However, analysts believe that the trend of CPI and PPI overrecovery will not last, and the CPI will not continue to rise significantly in the future as the tail-end factor is significantly lower, while PPI gains are expected to narrow. There is no obvious inflationary pressure, monetary policy may remain neutral, and the likelihood of overtightening is slim. High - strength polypropylene filament
The consumer price index rose 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier, the national bureau of statistics showed on Tuesday, outpacing the consensus forecast for the previous month.
The recovery of the CPI in August was mainly due to the rebound in the bottom of the pig cycle and the increase in vegetable prices caused by weather factors, according to ren zeping, chief economist at fangzheng securities. But it is not likely to see a sharp rise in CPI and PPI any time soon.
Data from the bureau showed that although food prices rose significantly in August, the year-on-year increase was -0.2%, still negative. Lian ping, chief economist at bocom, said that as weather factors weaken, even if food prices recover in the future, the gains will not be large.
In even the flat view, the main is carryover effect, affecting the consumer-price index trend in the coming months carryover effect significantly lower, high strength polypropylene silk year CPI will not continue to rise sharply, this year is expected to average CPI rise will still be lower than last year.
Notably, after holding steady at 5.5 per cent for three consecutive months, the PPI unexpectedly rebounded to 6.3 per cent in August.
Even the price of black metal and nonferrous metal products has risen sharply in recent years, lian ping said. The recent steel prices rose sharply for various reasons, on the one hand, infrastructure and part of the manufacturing recovery demand, on the other hand to bring supply capacity and high strength polypropylene silk limit production contract, does not rule out the possibility of strong inflows into commodity markets.
From the point of PPI data segment, in August, high strength polypropylene silk black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry product price rose 29.1% and 16.3% respectively, compared to the sequential rose 4.4% and 3.7%, respectively, from the previous month or widened.
However, Mr Lian said: "the PPI rally could be a short-term phenomenon and the future gains will still narrow."
He said that PPI is affected by high prices of polypropylene filament, and that the price of commodities will not rise significantly in the future, which will not push up the PPI further. Demand will not significantly enhance the price of industrial products, and will be affected by the weakening of the tail-end factors, which will be lower than the first half in the second half of the year.
Cicc held the same view. The team believes that PPI was the second half in the second half of the year, and the trend is very positive, with September likely to fall to around 6%, and the pace will accelerate towards the end of the year.
Although CPI and PPI inflation rose in August, there is no obvious inflationary pressure at present. Price fluctuations will not affect monetary policy.
Mr Ren said that in the context of financial deleveraging, monetary policy may remain neutral and the chances of a tightening are slim.
monetary policy will remain neutral
